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European real estate market. ... where is the bubble?

Updated: Jun 19, 2019

On 31st May 2019 Commerzbank has release a statement, where they stressed the possibility of a bubble coming soon on the European real estate market.

The Euro is at risk of a new real estate bubble as a result of the expansionary monetary policy from the European Central Bank”. Commerzbank analyst have warned.

About on year ago, 26th June 2018, the journalist Carrie-Marie Bretley writing for the site “the Portugal news”, signed an article, with the title:

'IMF warns of rise of real estate “bubbles” in Portugal.'

It was mention that the house pricing in Lisbon and Porto is over-evaluated.

A few days later, 8th August, on the Washington Post the reporter Patricia de Melo Moreira, wrote a different story with the title:

"Banks are cashing in Lisbon property boom."

On the same article there was observation made by Miguel Maya , CEO of the Portuguese bank Banco Comercial.

(...) But I don't think at all that there's a bubble in property market.”

Since last year, in just one year, the rise of property value in the two main Portuguese cities Lisboa e Porto was 23.5% and 23.3% respectively. As I wrote on a recent post. Portugal - Statistics on house prices at local level. Why do the German Commerzbank's analyst have such a different view?

Last 6th June 2019, a meeting took place in the European Central Bank, regarding the TLTRO III (targeted longer-term refinancing operations), an operation from the European Central Bank to finance credit institutions for periods up to four years.

The previous programs TLTRO I & TLTRO II, have finance many of property purchase we've seen in the last years, and the TLTRO III will follow the same strategy.

It's unlikely and not a real threat a bubble on the real estate as long and this finance operations, carried out by the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue. TLTRO III will start from September 2019.

I believe the Commerzbank is trying to put some pressure, on the ECB, to persuade them to deliver next September a convenient deal for the bank industry.

let's wait and see...

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